According to a final field survey by Global InfoAnalytics, Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB) of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) is not able to catch up to opposition leader John Dramani Mahama (JDM) of the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
According to the study, Bawumia trails Mahama with 37.3% of the devoted voters, while Mahama leads with 51.1%. With 1.3% of the vote, other contenders trail behind independents Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten (AKK) and Nana Kwame Bediako (NKB), with 4.1% and 6.2%, respectively.
Mahama continues to lead with 49.3% of likely voters vs Bawumia’s 35.9% in the unweighted likely voters’ model.
The poll highlights voter apathy as a significant challenge for the NPP, with 16% of potential non-voters identified as NPP supporters. By contrast, the NDC sees only 3% of its supporters in this category. Floating voters and those who declined to disclose their affiliations make up 38% and 39%, respectively, of those who say they will not vote.
With a significant 31-point advantage (54% to 23%) over Bawumia among floating voters, as well as an additional 18-point advantage among voters who declined to reveal their party affiliations, Mahama has a significant lead over Bawumia. Mahama also has an increasing advantage over Bawumia among first-time voters, outpacing her 46% to 38%; this is an improvement from a tie result in July 2024.
One concerning development for Bawumia is that, despite being a target audience for his campaign, his support among Muslims has been declining, falling by about 4% between July and October of 2024.
Additionally, the poll shows changes among those who voted for President Nana Akufo-Addo in 2020. Seventy percent of those voters still support Bawumia, while 19% have moved to support Mahama and five percent have each moved to Kyeremanten and Bediako. 20% and 37% of 2020 NPP voters in pivotal areas like Greater Accra and Central, respectively, now favour Mahama.
After including the Bono area in his column since the July survey, Mahama now leads in 12 regions in terms of regional domination. Greater Accra, Central, Western, Western North, Bono, Bono East, Northern, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, Oti, and Volta areas are currently under his charge. However, in the Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions, Bawumia is in the lead.
Nana Kwame Bediako and Alan Kyeremanten are emerging as significant contenders, especially in the Eastern and Ashanti regions, where their combined presence is eroding Bawumia’s dominance. In the Ashanti region, where the NPP aims to secure 85% of the vote, Bawumia remains at 66%, with Mahama at 22%, Bediako at 7%, and Kyeremanten at 4%.
Mahama is also outperforming his party’s parliamentary candidates in 56 of the 111 constituencies surveyed, while Bawumia trails his candidates in 79 constituencies, reflecting the potential impact of Kyeremanten and Bediako on the ruling party’s fortunes.
The poll underscores the central issues influencing voters ahead of the December elections: the economy, jobs, and education. The economy remains the top concern, with 70% of respondents citing it as their primary issue, followed by jobs (62%) and education (48%). Voters are also influenced by the current economic conditions, with 55% highlighting them as a key factor, followed by party performance (40%), candidate credibility (34%), and party manifestos (28%).
The NDC has a 14-point advantage over the NPP in terms of manifesto favorability, with the NPP’s manifesto having a net favorability rating of +6 points.
Additionally, 62% of respondents express dissatisfaction with Ghana’s current course, believing the nation is headed in the wrong path. The majority of NDC voters (88%), floating voters (74%), and other party supporters (76%), share this sentiment. In contrast, 64% of NPP voters say the country is on the right course.
36% of respondents approve of President Nana Akufo-Addo’s work performance, while 59% disapprove. Of voters, 49% think the government’s overall performance is poor or very poor, while 30% think it is good or very good.
As the December elections get near, Mahama is the clear favourite due to his advantages in important voter demographics and regions, while Bawumia and the NPP are facing growing difficulties, mainly from independent candidates and unhappy voters.
Source: Citinewsroom