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BoG’s Monetary Policy Committee begins 127th meeting as market anticipates possible rate cut

Today, November 24, 2025, marks the start of the Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) 127th meeting.

Discussions are anticipated to focus on significant macroeconomic developments influencing the course of the nation’s recovery.

The purpose of the meeting is to assess the state of the economy and determine the central bank’s course for the last few weeks of 2025. The Committee meets at a time when the Ghana Cedi has been relatively stable following a brief decline earlier in the year, which the central bank characterized as a market correction rather than a reversal of the currency’s general trend.

The increased demand for dollars ahead of the Christmas trading season has contributed to the Cedi’s slight decline notwithstanding its recent stability.

Inflation has also continued its downward path. Consumer inflation fell to 8 percent in October, driven by sustained tight monetary policy, fiscal consolidation, and improved food supply conditions.

The rate is now below the year-end target of 11.9 percent, strengthening calls for further monetary easing.

Also, Ghana’s economic performance has shown notable improvements. Real GDP (including oil) expanded by 6.3% in the second quarter of 2025, up from 5.1% in 2024.

Non-oil GDP grew by a stronger 7.8%, compared to 5.7% recorded in 2024, reflecting sustained activity in services, construction, and agriculture.

Citing a persistent drop in inflationary pressures, the MPC lowered the benchmark policy rate by 350 basis points to 21.5% in September.

This came after the rate was lowered by 300 basis points from 28% to 25% in July, which was one of the more significant easing cycles in recent memory.

Dr. Johnson Asiama, the governor of the Central Bank, stated that the earlier reduction were intended to boost credit expansion and aid in the economic recovery, but he issued a warning that risks are still high, particularly in light of possible utility rate changes and persistent currency pressures.

With inflation now at 8 percent and the real policy rate still significantly positive hovering about 10 percentage points above headline inflation, market analysts see room for more easing. Many expect the MPC to deliver another rate cut this month, supported by favourable base effects and improved inflation dynamics.

Forecasts from some economists point to a potential 100 to 250 basis point reduction, provided fiscal discipline is maintained and external shocks—particularly from global commodity prices and forex market volatility remain in check.

With the Cedi showing signs of weakening amid seasonal forex demand, markets will be closely watching how the MPC balances economic recovery with currency stability.

On Wednesday, November 26, 2025, the central bank will announce its policy rate decision and present its most recent evaluation of the economic outlook at a news conference that will mark the conclusion of the MPC’s discussions.

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